Constellation Brands Is Down Nearly 40% in 2025. Is This a Once-in-a-Lifetime Buying Opportunity Before the Stock Goes Parabolic?

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, once a stable blue chip stock, has seen its stock price drop approximately 37% this year, contrasting with a 12% rise in the S&P 500, raising questions about whether this decline presents a buying opportunity or signals further challenges ahead [1][12]. Revenue Sources - The majority of Constellation's revenue is derived from its beer business, with significant imports from Mexico, including brands like Corona and Modelo. Approximately 50% of beer sales are to Hispanic consumers, while the remaining revenue comes from smaller wine and spirits segments [3]. Major Challenges - Declining Consumption: Younger Millennial and Gen Z consumers are drinking less beer due to health trends, economic constraints, and changing social habits [4]. - Economic Pressures on Consumers: Many Hispanic consumers are cutting discretionary spending due to immigration issues and the impact of tariffs on various industries [5]. - Tariff Impact: The increase in tariffs on aluminum from 25% to 50% has negatively affected canned beer margins, as aluminum cans account for about 39% of beer shipments from Mexico [5]. - Divestment Strategy: Constellation is divesting cheaper wine and spirits brands to focus on higher-end products, which may enhance long-term gross margins but is currently hindering revenue growth [6]. Revenue Growth Trends - From fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2025, Constellation's revenue grew at a CAGR of 4%, primarily driven by its beer business, while wine and spirits segments continued to decline [8]. - Beer revenue growth rates were 8%, 11%, 11%, 9%, and 5% from FY 2021 to FY 2025, while wine and spirits experienced negative growth [9]. Guidance and Future Outlook - In September, Constellation revised its fiscal 2026 guidance, expecting organic sales to decline by 4% to 6%, with beer sales projected to drop by 2% to 4%. Comparable EPS is anticipated to decrease by 16% to 18% [10][11]. - Analysts predict a decline in revenue and comparable EPS for fiscal 2026 by 11% and 17%, respectively, but expect a slight recovery in fiscal 2027 with revenue and EPS growth of 1% and 10% [12][13]. Market Sentiment - Despite the stock appearing cheap at 12 times next year's earnings, ongoing declines in sales and profits may hinder its ability to achieve a higher valuation [12]. - The CEO indicated that the challenging macroeconomic environment has dampened consumer demand, suggesting that the downturn may persist [11].