刚刚，有人在期权市场下“大注”：油价在圣诞节前跌破50美元

Core Viewpoint - A trader has made a significant bearish bet on Brent crude oil, predicting prices will fall below $50 per barrel by the end of the year due to concerns over supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risks [1][6]. Group 1: Bearish Bet on Oil Prices - A notable trade involving $10 million worth of put options was executed, betting that Brent crude oil futures will drop below $50 per barrel before the options expire on December 23 [1][5]. - The trader employed a put spread strategy, buying puts with a strike price of $50 and selling puts with a strike price of $49, potentially turning an initial investment of approximately $350,000 into $10 million if prices fall as predicted [5]. Group 2: Supply Surplus Expectations - The core logic supporting this bearish bet is the expectation of a supply surplus in the global energy market, with analysts predicting a surplus of about 3 million barrels per day in Q4 2023 and Q1 2026 [6]. - Supply growth is anticipated from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, compounded by potential economic growth suppression from tariffs proposed by former President Trump [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the bearish sentiment, recent oil price increases challenge the pessimistic outlook, driven by heightened attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine, leading to reassessment of supply disruptions from Moscow [8][10]. - Market sentiment has shifted to a "moderately optimistic" stance, with data indicating that call option premiums have surpassed put option premiums for the first time since July, suggesting increased short-term expectations for price rises [10].