张尧浠：美联储降息会议来袭、金价前景仍是多头机会

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the bullish outlook for gold prices, driven by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a weakening US dollar, despite some short-term volatility [1][3][6]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices rebounded to touch the $3700 mark, with a daily high of $3702.63 and a closing price of $3689.64, reflecting a daily increase of $10 or 0.27% [1][3]. - The dollar index fell to its lowest level in over 10 weeks, influenced by investor bets on a rate cut and other geopolitical factors, which contributed to gold's price surge [3][6]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Market participants are almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with some speculating a potential 50 basis point cut due to pressure from President Trump [6][7]. - A rate cut is expected to initially cause a temporary decline in gold prices, but the lower opportunity cost of holding gold will likely attract more investment into the gold market [6][7]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by ongoing monetary policy easing, a weakening dollar, and persistent geopolitical risks [7][9]. - The cumulative increase in gold prices for 2025 is approximately 41%, indicating significant upward potential despite a previous increase of 27% in 2024 [6][7]. Technical Analysis - Short-term price movements suggest potential for a technical pullback, but any retracement is viewed as a buying opportunity, with key support levels identified at $3670 and $3650 [9][10]. - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with gold prices expected to continue their upward trajectory, supported by various technical indicators [10].