BBMarkets：美债在全球15大债券市场表现最为亮眼

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to restart the interest rate cut cycle in 2025 is rising, driven by concerns over the U.S. deficit exceeding 6% of GDP and debt repayment pressures, which have led analysts to suggest reducing U.S. Treasury holdings. However, this shift in expectation is now propelling U.S. Treasuries to outperform in the global sovereign bond market, ranking first in yields [1]. Group 1 - In 2025, the return rate of U.S. Treasuries, measured in local currency, is projected to reach 5.8%, making it the highest among the 15 major bond markets globally [3]. - Despite the significant yield advantage of U.S. Treasuries over other global sovereign bonds, the yield has dropped to a three-year low [3]. - The U.S. dollar index has declined by approximately 3% since the beginning of the year, allowing investors in overseas sovereign bonds to benefit from additional returns due to currency conversion, making the apparent returns from overseas assets higher than those from U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 2 - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates three times by the end of the year, with the first cut likely occurring during the upcoming meeting on Wednesday [3]. - The yield advantage of U.S. Treasuries over other global sovereign bonds has narrowed from over 200 basis points in January to 120 basis points [3]. - Due to the depreciation of the dollar, Italian government bonds have emerged as the best-performing major bond market in 2025, with actual returns for dollar investors reaching 16%, while Spanish government bonds yielded 15% [3].