美联储降息步入关键周：幅度与信号成为焦点

Economic Data - Recent U.S. economic indicators show a concerning labor market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [2] - The non-farm payroll data has been revised down by a total of 911,000 over the past year, averaging a monthly increase of nearly 76,000 jobs, with leisure, hospitality, and retail sectors being particularly hard hit [2] - August's CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflation that has not returned to the Fed's 2% target [2] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000 in the week of September 6, marking a four-year high and raising concerns about slowing economic growth [2][3] Political Factors - The recent Federal Reserve meeting is influenced by unprecedented political factors, including President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook amid allegations of mortgage fraud [4] - The legal and institutional challenges arise from the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which allows presidential dismissal only for cause, leading to a potential confrontation as Cook refuses to resign [5] - Trump's administration is pushing to reshape the Fed's decision-making process, which could significantly impact the independence and continuity of U.S. monetary policy [6] Policy Expectations - Market focus has shifted from whether the Fed will cut rates to the extent of the cuts, with a 50 basis point cut now having a 5% probability [7] - The upcoming dot plot will be crucial for assessing the depth of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, with recent data suggesting a more dovish stance may emerge [8] - The dot plot's distribution and subsequent statements from Fed Chair Powell could set the tone for asset performance in Q4 and beyond [8] Asset Prices - Asset price movements are showing significant structural differentiation, with varying impacts based on the extent of rate cuts [9] - A 25 basis point cut may lead to moderate pressure on the dollar and a steepening of the Treasury yield curve, while a 50 basis point cut could result in rapid dollar depreciation and increased market volatility [9] - Precious metals pricing reflects rate cut expectations, with gold and silver prices likely to respond strongly to the Fed's decisions and signals [10] Structural Factors for Precious Metals - Three structural factors are enhancing the allocation value of precious metals: ongoing central bank purchases, persistent geopolitical conflicts, and rising global debt pressures [10] - The current gold-silver ratio indicates a valuation advantage for silver, which may benefit from both financial and industrial demand in a rate-cutting environment [10] - Investors are advised to watch for trading opportunities following the Fed's rate decisions, particularly in the context of potential technical corrections in gold prices [10]