Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Aneng Logistics (09956) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, indicating a potential upside of 44% from the closing price of HKD 8.10 as of September 2 [1][3] Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Aneng Logistics demonstrated robust growth with total LTL freight volume reaching 6.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%; revenue of CNY 5.625 billion, up 6.4%; and adjusted net profit of CNY 476 million, reflecting a 10.7% increase, with a stable gross margin of 15.6% [3][4] - The company is expected to achieve a freight volume of 14.15 million tons in 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year growth [4] Market Opportunity - The LTL market in China is projected to reach CNY 1.7 trillion by 2024, characterized by a highly fragmented landscape where 90% of revenue is held by 200,000-300,000 small and local freight companies [3][4] - The express delivery segment, which has a higher gross margin, is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2024 to 2027, with market share expected to increase from 9% to 11% [3][4] Competitive Advantage - Aneng Logistics is positioned as a leader in the LTL express market, with a nationwide coverage of 99.6% of towns, significantly outperforming peers [4] - The company focuses on optimizing its product structure by emphasizing high-margin small and light goods, which has led to a 25.2% increase in total ticket volume year-on-year [4] Profitability - Aneng Logistics exhibits strong profitability metrics, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 30% in 2024, significantly higher than the industry average of 10% [5] - The company is expected to achieve a CAGR of 15% in adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2027, with gross margin increasing from 15.9% in 2024 to 16.2% in 2027 [5] Industry Dynamics - The LTL freight industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with a pronounced Matthew effect, where Aneng Logistics' advantages in network coverage, product structure, and profitability will allow it to gain market share as smaller players exit the market [6] - The company is characterized as a "value stock" due to its stable dividend policy and potential for dual release of value and performance as industry consolidation deepens [6]
摩根士丹利首予安能物流(09956)“增持”评级 目标价11.7港元 看好零担快运龙头成长潜力