美银预警：黄金将成最大赢家，揭秘黄金25年不败纪录

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America suggests that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as expected, gold will emerge as the biggest winner, with a projected price of $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Despite an inflation rate of 2.9% in August, the Federal Reserve is preparing to lower funding costs [1] - Historical data shows that gold prices have never declined when the Federal Reserve loosens monetary policy amid inflation rates above 2% [1] - The annual return rate of gold during "inflationary easing" periods has averaged around 13% [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - Gold futures have already risen over 40% since the beginning of 2025, with prices surpassing $3,700 recently [1] - The demand for gold from central banks is strong, with reserves exceeding U.S. Treasury holdings [1] - The dollar has depreciated over 10% against a basket of major trading partner currencies since 2025 [1] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - There is a strong investment demand for gold, highlighting its appeal as a hedge and anchor in investment portfolios [1] - Market sentiment appears crowded, making gold susceptible to changes in Federal Reserve policy or market expectations [2] - The Bank of America team anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower rates this week but warns that the path for future rate cuts may not be smooth [2] Group 4: Inflation Outlook - The preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is expected to remain above 3% in the first half of next year, significantly higher than the 2% target [2] - This inflation backdrop may limit the extent and speed of future rate cuts by policymakers [2] - The Bank of America maintains that gold remains one of the strongest hedging tools against persistent inflation and policy missteps, with the $4,000 target unchanged [2]