史上最大大宗交易！“神秘交易员”押注美联储今晚降息50基点

Core Viewpoint - Market traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will implement at least one 50 basis point rate cut in the remaining three policy meetings of the year, with some speculating that this could happen as soon as tonight [1][8]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The consensus among market participants is that the most likely scenario is a 25 basis point cut during the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1]. - There are signs of a cooling labor market in the U.S., prompting some traders to hedge against the risk of a more significant rate cut due to worsening economic prospects, despite persistent inflation [1][5]. Group 2: Trading Activity - A significant block trade involving 84,000 October Federal Funds futures contracts was executed, indicating a high risk exposure of $3.5 million per basis point, suggesting that a "mysterious trader" is hedging against the risk of a 50 basis point cut [3][5]. - This block trade is noted as the largest in the history of Federal Funds futures, reflecting heightened market activity and expectations [3][4]. Group 3: Options and Predictions - There is an increase in demand for options related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), indicating a more dovish rate expectation than currently priced in the swap market, which anticipates a cumulative cut of about 70 basis points before the December meeting [5]. - Some investment banks, like Standard Chartered, speculate that a 50 basis point "catch-up" cut may occur due to weak employment growth, although they caution that Chairman Powell is unlikely to signal further easing plans due to internal divisions among officials [8]. Group 4: Political Influences - The actions of the "mysterious traders" may also be influenced by pressure from the White House, as President Trump has criticized the Fed's pace of rate cuts, and the upcoming meeting will see the participation of newly confirmed Fed Governor Milan, indicating potential internal conflicts within the Fed [9].