美联储即将启动降息，降息周期启动哪些资产最受益？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a high probability of a 25 basis points or 50 basis points cut, while a 75 basis points cut would exceed expectations [2] - The Fed's previous rate cut cycle lasted only three to four months, with a total reduction of 100 basis points, indicating a stronger need for rate cuts this year compared to last year [6] - Market predictions suggest that by mid-2026, the terminal rate may drop below 3%, alleviating the high interest payment burden in the U.S. [6] Group 2 - The distinction between preventive rate cuts and recessionary rate cuts is significant, with preventive cuts being less frequent and less impactful compared to recessionary cuts, which tend to last longer and have a greater magnitude [6] - The longest rate cut cycle historically lasted 40 months, while the shortest was less than two weeks, with average cycles typically ranging from 12 to 25 months [6] Group 3 - A new rate cut cycle by the Fed may lead to a decline in the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, potentially causing a drop in the dollar index, which could benefit assets like gold, industrial metals, real estate, and stocks [7] - Gold is expected to benefit directly from a declining dollar, as it typically has an inverse relationship with the dollar, and it also serves as a hedge against inflation [7] Group 4 - Emerging market stocks are likely to benefit more than other markets during a new Fed rate cut cycle, as a declining dollar can lead to capital inflows into these markets [8] - High dividend-paying assets may see increased attractiveness as terminal rates decline, making them more appealing to investors [8] Group 5 - The real estate market is expected to recover due to Fed rate cuts, particularly benefiting real estate companies with significant overseas debt, as their repayment pressures will decrease [9] - However, the recovery of the real estate market will depend on various factors beyond just interest rates, including the establishment of a new upward trend [9] - The market has partially priced in the benefits of the Fed's expected rate cuts, suggesting that the actual impact may not be as pronounced if the cuts align with market expectations [9]