现货黄金：升破3700美元，年内涨幅逾40%

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surpassed $3,700 per ounce, reaching a historical high, driven by investor speculation on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Price Movement and Historical Context - As of the beginning of this week, gold prices have increased by over 40% year-to-date, marking the largest gain for the same period since 1979 [1] - The trajectory and magnitude of gold price increases over the past nine months resemble the bull market of 1979, which saw a 50% rise in the first nine months and a nearly 30% increase in the fourth quarter [1] - Historical patterns indicate that during periods of high inflation, the Federal Reserve often cuts interest rates, which tends to benefit gold prices [1] Group 2: Market Influences - Global trade uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and a surge in central bank gold purchases, along with inflows into gold ETFs, have contributed to the rising gold prices [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that if 1% of private holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds were to shift to gold, prices could approach $5,000 per ounce [1] - Following the Jackson Hole global central bank conference in August, gold prices have outperformed U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, the dollar, and oil [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Bank of America forecasts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026, citing that interest rate cuts may lead to long-term price pressures and increased stagflation risks, creating a favorable environment for gold [1]