美联储降息板上钉钉，中国楼市能否借此东风，迎来关键命运转折？

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September 2025 is as high as 92%, which is causing global markets to react and creating anticipation among investors in China [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's previous rate cuts in 2016 and 2019, there was a significant increase in luxury home sales in China's first-tier cities, with a 32% month-on-month rise in 2016 and a 15% increase in high-end residential prices within three months in 2019 [3]. - The current expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and a cumulative 50 basis point cut in October is leading to a reallocation of global capital, with emerging markets, particularly China, becoming attractive for international investors [3]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers in China has dropped to 3.45%, indicating potential for further reductions, which could stimulate demand in the housing market [5]. - The Fed's rate cut is expected to provide more room for China's central bank to adjust its monetary policy, with a projected reduction of 20-30 basis points in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [5]. - There has been a noticeable increase in inquiries for core location properties from foreign investors in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [5]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Policy Implications - High-net-worth individuals have begun to act on the anticipated benefits of the Fed's rate cut, with a 25% month-on-month increase in luxury home viewings in cities like Beijing and Shanghai since August [7]. - Over 100 cities in China have introduced policies to optimize the real estate market, with potential measures including lower down payment ratios and tax incentives [7]. - The upcoming months are expected to see a concentrated period of new policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [9]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Cautions - While the Fed's rate cut may lead to a reallocation of global capital and a potential 10-15% price increase in premium properties in first-tier cities, the overall market may not experience a broad-based rally due to existing inventory challenges [9][11]. - The primary issues in the real estate market are insufficient confidence and declining purchasing power, suggesting that reliance solely on monetary policy may not yield significant improvements [11]. - The government has shown a strong commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, but the success of this effort will depend on various factors, including economic fundamentals and income expectations [13].