邓正红能源软实力：石油市场三重博弈 短期波动将持续直至新平衡 国际油价走高

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks, financial policies, and supply-demand dynamics, leading to ongoing short-term volatility until a new balance is established [1][2]. Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent attacks in the Middle East, have become the primary drivers of short-term oil market dynamics, injecting a geopolitical premium into oil prices [2][3]. - The potential for the U.S. to impose further sanctions on Russia and encourage the EU to increase tariffs has heightened concerns over oil supply disruptions [2]. Financial Policies - Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, influenced by disappointing U.S. employment data and dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, have further unsettled the market [2][3]. - The anticipated rate cut is expected to boost oil market sentiment, but concerns over global economic slowdown and weak oil demand continue to exert downward pressure on prices [2]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its demand forecasts for three consecutive months, reflecting hard constraints from de-industrialization in developed economies [4]. - The OPEC alliance's continued production increases are contributing to supply surplus pressures, limiting the upward potential for oil prices [1][4]. - The emergence of an "Asian buyer alliance" through strategic reserve purchases by China and discounted oil imports by India is creating new bargaining power on the demand side [4]. Soft Power Dynamics - The current oil price fluctuations are characterized by a balance of geopolitical risk premiums, monetary easing expectations, and the reshaping of supply-demand rules, as outlined in the "soft power" theory [2][3]. - Russia's oil industry is facing a decline in soft power due to Western sanctions, which have weakened its infrastructure maintenance capabilities and energy diplomacy [3]. - The OPEC alliance is acting as a "supply regulator," showcasing its ability to manage expectations and maintain price stability without losing market share [4]. Market Volatility - Oil price volatility remains high, driven by the dynamic interplay of geopolitical risk premiums and supply surplus pressures, with the Federal Reserve's policy shift potentially serving as a key variable to break the current deadlock [4].