香港第一金PPLI：黄金暴拉破3700创历史新高！美联储决议前夕的多头狂欢与操作全攻略

Core Insights - Gold prices are currently fluctuating near historical highs, with a recent peak of $3703 per ounce, driven primarily by market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Drivers - The surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a weakening US dollar and declining US Treasury yields, which enhance gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have reached a peak, with an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 12% chance of a 50 basis point cut, contributing to the rise in gold prices [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Trading Recommendations - In the current high volatility environment, caution is advised. Key resistance levels are identified at $3702-$3705, with potential further gains if these levels are breached [3]. - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on dips, particularly in the $3680-$3690 range, with a stop-loss set below $3670 and a target of $3700-$3710 [3]. - For aggressive traders, a short position may be considered if gold rebounds to the $3705-$3715 range and shows signs of resistance, with a stop-loss above $3720 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices is heavily dependent on the outcome of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. A 25 basis point cut could push prices above $3725, while a surprise 50 basis point cut may lead to a rapid increase towards the $3750-$3800 range [4]. - There is a risk of profit-taking if the Fed's guidance does not meet market expectations, potentially leading to a pullback to the $3650-$3620 support area [4]. - Long-term bullish sentiment remains intact due to strong global central bank demand for gold and favorable technical indicators [4].