ETO Markets 市场洞察：黄金火箭式上涨背后，藏着哪些不为人知的秘密？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a historic moment with spot gold prices surpassing $3700 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a weak dollar, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [1][3]. Group 1: Key Drivers - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with a 4% probability of a 50 basis point cut. This low interest rate environment enhances the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. - Decline of the Dollar Index: The dollar index fell 0.74% to 96.54, marking a new low since July 1. A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to global buyers, despite strong retail sales data in August [3][4]. - Structural Support from Safe-Haven Demand and Central Bank Purchases: Global economic uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts have activated gold's safe-haven properties. Central banks act as long-term strategic buyers, creating a positive feedback loop that strengthens price resilience [3][4]. Group 2: Global Interconnections - Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The rise in gold prices reflects the divergence in global monetary policies. The market anticipates that the Bank of England will maintain its current rate, while the Bank of Japan will keep its rate at 0.5%. This divergence amplifies exchange rate volatility and enhances gold's financial attributes [4]. - Sustainability of the Super Cycle: The effective breakthrough of gold above $3700 signifies the start of a new price revaluation cycle. While short-term fluctuations may occur based on the Federal Reserve's decisions, the long-term support remains intact due to global monetary easing, weakened dollar credibility, and institutionalized central bank gold purchases [5][8]. Group 3: Key Events and Timelines - Upcoming Federal Reserve Decision: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 18 at 2:00 AM Beijing time, with a press conference by Powell at 2:30 AM. Market participants should monitor U.S. housing market data and developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, as these could indirectly influence gold prices [6].