美联储降息箭在弦上，但幅度该多大内部分歧严重

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target to a range of 4%-4.25% due to a slowing job market and manageable inflation levels [1][4] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Analysts predict that the FOMC will continue to cut rates, with two additional 25 basis point cuts expected in October and December [1] - The prevailing opinion suggests a total of six rate cuts may occur, potentially extending into spring next year, contingent on employment, inflation, and economic activity data [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - The FOMC has seen significant internal disagreement, with two members, Bowman and Waller, voting against the last rate decision, advocating for a more aggressive 25 basis point cut [4] - This marks the first instance in over 30 years where two board members simultaneously opposed a rate decision, highlighting increasing divisions within the committee [4] Group 3: Political and Economic Influences - Concerns over a weakening labor market are driving some members to push for lower rates to mitigate recession risks, with Waller warning of potential layoffs if credit conditions remain tight [4] - Political pressures are also influencing FOMC decisions, as recent personnel changes and public statements from former President Trump suggest expectations for a significant rate cut [4]