离岸人民币兑美元升破7.10关口 专家：后续有望破“7”

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, breaking the 7.10 mark for the first time since November last year, driven by expectations of US interest rate cuts and strong support from China's exports to various markets [2][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movement - On September 17, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached a high of 7.0995, while the onshore rate closed at 7.1163, marking a significant increase [2]. - The RMB has shown notable volatility, initially depreciating at the beginning of the year but appreciating significantly since April, nearing the critical "7" level [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to three main factors: short-term expectations of US interest rate cuts, medium-term support from exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and other emerging markets, and long-term economic stabilization policies in China [2]. - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the USD index, providing upward momentum for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as beneficial for domestic demand and investment, while it poses challenges for exporters who may need to establish technological barriers to reduce reliance on low prices [3]. - China's economic recovery and structural transformation are expected to support the RMB's strength, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand further enhancing this trend [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with potential for additional cuts by the end of the year [4]. - Analysts predict that the RMB/USD exchange rate may continue to appreciate, with key indicators being the movements of US interest rates and cross-border capital flows [4].