需求端韧性叠加宏观面支撑 天胶偏强运行为主

Core Viewpoint - The domestic natural rubber market is experiencing a strong upward trend due to a temporary tightening of supply, steady demand growth, and favorable macroeconomic factors [1] Demand Side Expectations - Internationally, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, providing support for the commodity market. August non-farm payrolls added 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, which has enhanced market expectations for the probability and extent of rate cuts. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 will be crucial [2] - Domestically, multiple policies are working together to boost consumer confidence and improve market development expectations. The reintroduction of national subsidies in September, focusing on the automotive sector, is expected to increase vehicle sales by 10%, directly benefiting downstream demand for natural rubber. In August, domestic automobile production reached 2.815 million units, a month-on-month increase of 223,900 units, with a growth rate of 8.64%. The inventory warning index for automobile dealers decreased by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a clear trend of increased production and reduced inventory [2] - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, coupled with the national subsidy policy, tire manufacturers' operating rates are expected to further rise. As of September 12, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires rose to 66.31%, a weekly increase of 5.57 percentage points, while the operating rate of semi-steel tires reached 72.61%, a weekly increase of 5.69 percentage points. Although the inventory days in Shandong remain at a high level compared to the past five years, they have decreased by 1.69% from the previous month, indicating a marginal alleviation of inventory pressure [2] Supply Side Conditions - As rainfall decreases and weather improves in major production areas, the efficiency of rubber tapping has increased, leading to a weakening of support for rubber prices from the raw material side. Although Thailand and Hainan are still experiencing peak rainfall, the weekly rainfall in Thailand has decreased by 1.08%, while Hainan's rainfall has increased by 133.02%. The peak rainfall season in Yunnan has ended, with a recent weekly decrease of 21.21% in rainfall, significantly improving tapping conditions [3] - Raw material prices are stabilizing domestically while showing slight declines internationally. As of September 15, the price of Yunnan rubber remained at 14,800 yuan per ton, stable in recent times. The FOB price of Thai cup rubber has dropped to 51 Thai baht per kilogram, down 1.7 Thai baht per kilogram from the previous week, while the FOB price of cup rubber has slightly increased by 0.2 Thai baht per kilogram compared to last week [3] Potential Risks - On September 10, Mexico proposed to raise tariffs on cars from Asia to a maximum of 50% to protect local jobs. If this policy is implemented, it may impact domestic automobile exports and subsequently affect natural rubber demand. However, there has not yet been a substantial impact [4] - Previously, OPEC+ maintained its production increase strategy, leading to expectations of falling oil prices, which in turn dragged down synthetic rubber prices and affected natural rubber trends. Future international geopolitical conflicts may boost oil prices, causing fluctuations in synthetic rubber prices. As a major substitute for natural rubber, the price trends of synthetic rubber will continue to influence market sentiment for natural rubber [4] - Overall, the current domestic natural rubber market's growth in demand, tightening inventory, and favorable macroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged. Although the marginal supply from production areas has weakened raw material support, the resilience of demand and macroeconomic support still dominate the market [4]