盾博dbg：英镑回落至1.3640，市场静待英国CPI与美联储决议

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate has experienced a slight pullback after two consecutive days of gains, currently trading around 1.3640 as the market awaits the release of UK CPI and RPI data [1][2] - The UK CPI for August is expected to show a year-on-year inflation rate increase from 3.8% to 3.9%, with a monthly inflation rate rise from 0.1% to 0.3%, which may influence the Bank of England's future monetary policy [1] - In the US, consumer spending remains strong, with August retail sales increasing by 0.6%, surpassing the market expectation of 0.2%, indicating robust consumer activity despite high inflation and a slightly weak labor market [1] Group 2 - The market is highly focused on the Federal Reserve's future policy, with predictions from Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank suggesting a potential 25 basis point rate cut in September, October, and December [2] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the market has fully priced in a possible 25 basis point rate cut this week, marking the first cut since December of the previous year [2] - Analysts note that the GBP/USD exchange rate is currently in a volatile state, influenced by economic data from both the UK and the US, as well as expectations regarding central bank policies [2][4] Group 3 - Technically, the GBP/USD rate previously reached around 1.3665 but has since retreated to approximately 1.3640, indicating a market correction after a short-term rise [4] - The primary focus of the market is on the upcoming UK CPI and RPI data, along with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, which may lead to fluctuations in the GBP and USD exchange rates [4] - Investors and market observers are closely monitoring economic indicators and policy signals for their potential impact on exchange rates, regardless of short-term market movements [4]