宁德时代曾毓群：储能企业已超30万家，大批被淘汰后将出现“孤儿电站”

Core Insights - The energy storage industry is currently undergoing a critical transformation, facing five major challenges: safety hazards, intense price competition, false product specifications, technological homogenization, and disorderly expansion [1][2] Group 1: Industry Challenges - Safety hazards are a significant concern, with 167 recorded safety incidents in the global energy storage sector by May 2025. Increased operational frequency of storage systems raises safety risks [1] - Price competition is exceptionally fierce, with energy storage system prices in China dropping by approximately 80% over the past three years. Recent bidding prices have even fallen below 0.4 CNY/Wh, deviating significantly from costs, which may compromise quality and safety [1] - There are issues with false product specifications, as some companies focus on marketing rather than genuine R&D, leading to products that underperform compared to their promised lifespan [1] - Technological homogenization is becoming apparent, with many companies opting for shortcuts by copying existing technologies instead of pursuing independent innovation [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The number of registered energy storage companies has exceeded 300,000, leading to a potential market shakeout where many firms may be eliminated, resulting in "orphaned stations" that lack maintenance [2] - As of June 2025, China's cumulative installed capacity for power storage reached 164.3 GW, marking a 59% year-on-year increase. Projections suggest that by 2030, the installed capacity could reach 236.1 GW in conservative scenarios and exceed 291 GW in ideal scenarios, with a compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the next five years [2] - China dominates the global market, accounting for over 90% of energy storage battery shipments and over 70% of system shipments [2] Group 3: Company Performance - CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) is a leading player in both power and energy storage batteries, maintaining the top position in global power battery usage for eight consecutive years and in energy storage battery shipments for four years [2] - As of September 17, CATL's A-shares rose by 6.95% to 377.97 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 1.72 trillion CNY. Its H-shares increased by 5.24% to 502 HKD per share, with a market capitalization of 2.29 trillion HKD [2]