


Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities forecasts that United Pharmaceuticals (03933) will achieve revenues of 13.35 billion, 12.77 billion, and 13.93 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.59 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 12, and 11 times, respectively. The company is given a "strong buy" rating due to its stable antibiotic business, growth in insulin and animal health sectors, and accelerated innovation development [1]. Group 1: Innovation and Development - United Pharmaceuticals has developed a comprehensive pharmaceutical group with four major business segments: formulations, raw materials, biotechnology, and animal health, supported by nine production and R&D entities. The company is in the third phase of innovation and upgrade development, with a stable outlook for its antibiotic business and new growth curves in insulin and animal health [2]. - The collaboration with Novo Nordisk on UBT251, valued at up to 2 billion USD, is expected to continuously contribute to the company's growth. UBT251, a GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-agonist, shows superior weight loss efficiency, with a 16.6% average weight reduction at the highest dose after 12 weeks in clinical trials [2]. - The company has a robust pipeline in autoimmune, metabolic, ophthalmology, and anti-infection fields, with UBT37034 (NPY2RA) and UBT48128 (oral GLP-1 small molecule) showing promising potential for future growth [2]. Group 2: Main Business Performance - The intermediate raw materials segment maintains a leading position with a stable competitive landscape, although it is currently under pressure due to weakened demand. The company is the absolute leader in penicillin, and demand stabilization is expected to lead to a recovery [3]. - The impact of centralized procurement on traditional formulations and insulin has been cleared, with insulin exports showing a positive growth trend. Several products, including degludec and degludec/aspart, are in NDA/clinical stages, which are expected to contribute additional revenue upon launch [3]. - The animal health segment is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, driven by both economic and companion animal businesses, enhancing the full industry chain layout of raw materials and formulations [3].