Group 1 - Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious outlook on the mainland software industry due to expected GDP growth slowdown and persistent deflationary pressures, with a recovery in IT investment confidence anticipated only after 1 to 2 years post-deflation [1] - Any new technology trends driven by supply-side factors will only lead to a redistribution of existing budgets in the market until there is a substantial demand turnaround [1] - The sector is expected to follow overall market liquidity in a low-interest-rate environment, exhibiting higher elasticity (Beta), as the allocation weight of active funds remains very low [1] Group 2 - The firm strongly recommends H-shares over A-shares, with its top pick being Beisen Holdings (09669), targeting a price of HKD 10.3 and rating it "Buy" due to expected accelerated revenue growth [1] - Other preferred stocks include Kingdee International (00268), China Software International (00354), and Kingsoft (03888), with target prices of HKD 14.2, HKD 6.6 (up from HKD 5.4), and HKD 38 respectively, all rated "In line with the market" [1] - Thematic investments such as AI applications, technology localization, and stablecoins may significantly impact stock prices, but no themes have been identified that can truly reverse the industry's fundamentals at this time [1]
大摩：对内地软件行业持谨慎态度 首选北森控股(09669)