铁矿石：供应回升需求回落，短期或790-820震荡

Core Viewpoint - The black metal sector has collectively rebounded, with iron ore prices influenced by supply and demand dynamics, while short-term demand for iron ore is expected to struggle to maintain previous high levels due to steel mill profit margins returning to breakeven levels [1] Supply Analysis - Iron ore supply expectations remain unchanged, with a recovery in production in North China driving an increase in molten iron output [1] - External iron ore shipments have increased month-on-month, reaching a new high for the year, with significant recoveries from Australia, Brazil, and non-mainstream mines [1] - The arrival volume at ports is slightly higher than the same period last year, indicating that supply-side pressure will gradually manifest as high shipment volumes continue to arrive [1] Demand Analysis - Domestic demand has rebounded to previous levels following the end of environmental production restrictions in North China [1] - The average daily molten iron production is reported at 240.55 thousand tons, with steel mill profitability still at a near five-year historical high despite a continuous decline [1] - As the National Day holiday approaches, steel mills are expected to have concentrated restocking needs, which may support iron ore prices in the short term [1] Inventory Insights - Steel mill daily consumption has increased due to production recovery in multiple regions, leading to a slight increase in inventory, although still below last year's levels [1] - Port inventories continue to show a slight increase, with a significant rise in port throughput following the lifting of environmental restrictions, while domestic pre-holiday restocking is expected to drive inventory down [1] Market Outlook - The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with trading focus shifting towards real market conditions [1] - Short-term iron ore supply is steadily recovering, while demand is retreating from high levels; the medium-term supply-demand balance is shifting from tight to balanced, but pre-holiday restocking demand is expected to support prices [1] - Iron ore prices are anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 790 to 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to 105 to 108 USD/ton in the external market, with an operational strategy of range trading and covered call options [1]