离岸人民币兑美元升破7.10关口 三大原因找到了

Group 1 - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.10 mark, reaching a high of 7.0995, the first time since November of the previous year [2] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1163, up 65 points from the previous trading day, also marking a new high since November 6 of the previous year [2] - The RMB exchange rate has shown significant volatility, with both onshore and offshore RMB depreciating at the beginning of the year but appreciating notably since April, approaching the "7" integer mark [2] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by three main factors: short-term expectations of continuous interest rate cuts by the US, medium-term support from exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and other emerging markets, and long-term economic data indicating a need for policies to boost domestic demand [3] - The key driver for the RMB's appreciation against the USD is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a decline in the USD index, providing passive appreciation momentum for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [3] - From a domestic economic perspective, the appreciation of the RMB is beneficial for domestic demand and investment, while it may exert pressure on exports, prompting export companies to establish technological barriers to reduce reliance on low prices [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, with traders increasing bets on a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting, and a 93.4% probability of this occurring [4] - Future trends for the RMB against the USD are expected to remain positive, with predictions that it may break the "7" mark, influenced by changes in US Federal Reserve policies and cross-border capital flows [4][5] - Historical data suggests that there is no definitive pattern for RMB exchange rate movements following Federal Reserve rate cuts, but the ongoing recovery of the Chinese economy and strong demand from emerging markets are expected to support RMB appreciation [5]