美联储“首次降息日”前后，各大资产“历史上是如何表现的”？

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citigroup outlines expectations for a new interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, predicting a 25 basis point cut due to employment risks, while also providing a historical context for market behavior during such periods [1][4][5] Group 1: Historical Patterns - Historically, both stocks and bonds tend to show positive returns around the time of the first interest rate cut, with stocks averaging a 5% increase in the 50 days following a cut [4] - The dollar typically weakens before a rate cut and stabilizes afterward, while gold prices rise before the implementation of a loose monetary policy but tend to trade within a range post-cut [4][5] - In 2024, the market's aggressive pricing of rate cuts led to bond prices peaking at the first cut, contrasting with the current more moderate pricing of 120 basis points, which reduces the risk of a similar bond market downturn [5][9] Group 2: Economic Context - The ongoing capital expenditure boom driven by artificial intelligence is expected to support a "soft landing" for the economy, which is favorable for the stock market [3] - The current market environment aligns with historical shallow rate cut cycles and soft landing scenarios, potentially providing sustained support for bonds [3][13] Group 3: Key Indicators for Rate Cuts - The depth of the current rate cut cycle is influenced by the S&P 500 index level and inflation trends, with high stock levels typically leading to shallower cuts [11] - Despite significant inflation declines in 2024, the initial high levels resulted in a shallow cut cycle, indicating that current market conditions may follow a similar pattern [13] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, stock prices often experience an initial "knee-jerk" reaction, which may reverse before the close, while bond prices tend to stabilize after initial increases [17] - The report highlights that a hawkish surprise from the FOMC can have lasting impacts on currency pairs, particularly the euro/dollar, with strong dollar performance potentially lasting up to 20 trading days [17]