百利好丨美联储今夜重磅决议，全球市场严阵以待

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16-17 is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut during the meeting, reflecting investor sentiment that the Fed is prioritizing labor market performance over inflation concerns [3][6]. - There is a nearly 70% probability of two additional rate cuts by the end of the year, suggesting an acceleration of the easing cycle and a potential rebound in risk sentiment [3][6]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas of the Meeting - The meeting will focus on whether the Fed's monetary policy is at a turning point, with a rate cut potentially signaling the start of a new easing cycle amid slowing job growth and persistent inflation above target [6]. - The independence of the Fed's policy is under scrutiny, particularly in light of ongoing political pressures and controversies surrounding board nominations, raising questions about Powell's ability to make independent decisions [6]. - The newly released economic projections (SEP) and the dot plot will be closely watched, especially regarding expectations for terminal interest rates before 2026, which could influence global asset allocation and market confidence [6]. - Powell's press conference will be crucial, as his comments on inflation, employment, and policy direction, along with responses to political pressures, may significantly impact market expectations [6].