每日机构分析：9月17日

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but each subsequent rate cut will become increasingly difficult due to a tightening monetary policy space [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Fed will acknowledge labor market weakness in its September statement but will not commit to another rate cut in October, with Powell possibly hinting at future easing during the press conference [1] - Political pressures are driving the Fed towards rate cuts, which may not align with economic fundamentals, raising concerns about the independence of monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Despite a weak job market, the U.S. economy is still progressing, and rate cuts are deemed necessary; however, fears regarding the Fed's credibility are unfounded as Powell remains unaffected by external pressures [2] - Any rate cut perceived as a compromise to political pressure could pose systemic risks to the market, with the S&P 500 currently showing signs of being overvalued at a P/E ratio of 22.5 [2] - The Bank of England is unlikely to ease monetary policy further this year due to persistent inflation, with the CPI remaining at 3.8% in August [3] Group 3 - UBS predicts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on September 18 and continue easing until March 2026, aiming to shift from a restrictive to a neutral policy stance [3] - Singapore's non-oil exports fell by 4.9% year-on-year in August, indicating weak recovery momentum, with expectations for 2025 export growth remaining at the lower end of the 1%-3% range [3] - Germany's finance ministry plans to increase its bond issuance in Q4 by €15 billion, reflecting rising fiscal expansion needs and putting pressure on long-term interest rates [3]