Gold Market - Gold prices reached an important level of $3,700, marking a historical high with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, making it one of the best-performing assets globally this year [1] - The last time such a significant annual increase in gold prices occurred was in 1979, driven by an energy crisis that raised global inflation and impacted the world economy [1] - Historical trends indicate that when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates during rising inflation, gold tends to perform well, with prices never declining in the following year under such conditions over the past 25 years [1] - Analysts suggest that gold may replicate the bull market of the late 1970s, as a new rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve has begun, leading to inevitable inflation increases and enhanced attractiveness of gold [1] - Technical analysis shows signs of a potential short-term downward trend in gold prices, with a key resistance level at $3,675 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound but remain limited due to a dual challenge of increasing supply and demand concerns, indicating that the rebound potential is constrained [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global supply growth will exceed expectations by 2025, driven by OPEC+'s production increase plans aimed at regaining market share [2] - OPEC+ may tolerate a mid-term decline in oil prices as their production costs are significantly lower than shale oil, despite the potential for a weaker dollar due to Federal Reserve rate cuts providing limited support for oil prices [2] - Recent data shows a decline in long positions and net long positions in WTI crude oil futures, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - Technical indicators suggest that oil prices are facing downward pressure, with a resistance level at $64.60 [2] Dollar Index - The dollar index hit a new low since early July, breaking out of previous trading ranges, indicating potential for further declines [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut, with investors closely monitoring the extent of the cut, as inflation concerns may lead to a cautious approach from the Fed [3] - Diverging opinions among Federal Reserve officials exist regarding the number of rate cuts, creating uncertainty about the continuity of future rate cuts [3] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend in the dollar index, with a potential for short-term rebounds, focusing on a resistance level at 97.20 [4] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index closed with a small bearish candle, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a price pullback [5] - A breakout above previous trading ranges could signal a completion of the current structure, prompting consideration for exiting long positions if acceleration occurs [5] Copper Market - Copper prices showed a slight decline, facing significant resistance from upper price levels [6] - Technical indicators suggest weakening upward momentum, with potential for further short-term adjustments, focusing on a resistance level at $4.57 [6] Economic Data Overview - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.5% and previous value of 0.2% [7] - Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index rose from 25.1 to 26.1, indicating improved economic outlook [8] - Eurozone's industrial production for July rebounded to 0.3% from a previous -0.6%, although still below market expectations of 0.4% [8] Upcoming Economic Events - Eurozone's final CPI year-on-year for August is expected to remain at 2.1% [9] - U.S. new housing starts for August are projected at an annualized rate of 1.365 million units, down from the previous 1.428 million [10] - U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending September 12 is anticipated to show a decrease of 857,000 barrels, contrasting with a previous increase of 3.939 million barrels [11]
百利好晚盘分析：市场屏气凝神 静待降息落地
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-17 09:21