美联储9月降息定生死！25还是50基点？特朗普政治博弈搅全局！

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut, which could positively impact global markets including stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate [1] - This rate cut is different from previous ones due to complex economic data and political dynamics, with the Trump administration pushing for a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [1][3] - Current economic indicators, such as weak non-farm payroll data and inflation concerns, suggest that a 25 basis point cut is a rational decision, but the government is seeking a more substantial reduction [3][5] Group 2 - The decision on the rate cut hinges on the voting power within the Federal Reserve, with three out of seven members already supporting a cut, and the focus is on securing one more vote [5] - The market sentiment is cautious about a 50 basis point cut, as it may signal economic recession, while a 25 basis point cut is viewed as a liquidity boost [5][7] - Historical precedents show that improper rate cuts can lead to inflation and economic downturns, making inflation data a critical factor in the Fed's decision-making process [7][9] Group 3 - If the U.S. GDP experiences consecutive months of negative growth, the Fed may opt for a more aggressive approach to stabilize the economy, which could include both rate cuts and balance sheet expansion [9] - The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is seen as a necessary measure to provide liquidity directly to the market, especially in times of economic or financial distress [9][11] - The current political pressure on the Fed to cut rates and expand its balance sheet raises questions about how the market will respond to high liquidity and potential inflation risks [11]