Tai Mei Ti A P P·2025-09-17 10:19Core Viewpoint - The energy storage sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by significant stock price increases of leading companies like CATL and Sungrow, alongside supportive government policies and growing global demand for energy storage solutions [1][4][5]. Market Performance - On September 15, CATL's A-shares rose by 9.14% and Hong Kong shares by 7.44%, while Sungrow's A-shares increased by 2.66%, reaching historical highs [1]. - The energy storage sector index saw a daily increase of over 2% on September 17, with CATL's A-shares climbing 6.7% to a market cap of 1.72 trillion yuan [1]. Government Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)", aiming for a new energy storage capacity of 180 GW by 2027, with direct project investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [4]. - The plan aligns with industry expectations, especially after the cancellation of the "mandatory storage" policy, which previously required new renewable energy projects to include a certain percentage of energy storage [4][5]. Industry Growth Projections - As of June 2023, China's new energy storage capacity surpassed 100 GW, with conservative estimates predicting a cumulative capacity of 236 GW by 2030 and an ideal scenario exceeding 291 GW, indicating a compound annual growth rate of over 20% [4]. - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that actual installed capacity could reach 215 GW by 2027, close to the conservative estimate for 2030 by CNESA [5]. Recent Trends - Despite a nearly 40% year-on-year decline in new energy storage installations in June, July, and August, August saw a nearly 30% increase compared to the previous month, with a significant rise in new installations on the power generation side [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the new policy in clarifying the role of energy storage in the market, which could lead to a "V-shaped recovery" for the industry [6]. Risks and Challenges - The energy storage sector faces skepticism regarding its commercial viability, with experts highlighting that the current pricing mechanisms and business scenarios do not support market operations [8]. - Concerns about the sustainability of high investment models in energy storage have been raised, as the market may not support large-scale, high-cost projects reliant solely on price differentials [8][9]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with significant price reductions and profit margin pressures, leading to potential industry consolidation and the risk of many companies exiting the market [10].