美联储降息终于兑现，黄金要冲更多新高取决于什么？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to implement its first interest rate cut of the year by 25 basis points, with a lower likelihood of a 50 basis point cut due to signs of slowing employment growth [1][3] - Recent economic data supports a more accommodative monetary policy, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, marking the first negative growth in non-farm employment since 2020 [3] - Inflation is showing signs of cooling, with the August CPI rising 2.9% year-over-year, which aligns with expectations [3] Group 2 - Key focus areas for the upcoming Federal Reserve decision include the potential adjustments in economic growth forecasts due to consumer slowdown and labor market weakness, as well as any changes in core PCE inflation expectations [7] - The market is particularly attentive to the "dot plot" from the Federal Reserve, which indicates a potential 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with expectations of a total of 75 basis points in cuts by year-end [5][7] - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's statements and the dot plot will be crucial in determining future volatility [5] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged over 40% this year, outperforming major assets like the S&P 500, and have recently reached record highs, supported by a declining dollar index [7][9] - The trajectory of gold prices post-Federal Reserve decision will depend on the signals released by the Fed and market interpretations of those signals [7][9] - A dovish stance from the Federal Reserve could enhance gold's appeal, potentially pushing prices above $3,700, while a hawkish stance may lead to profit-taking and short-term price corrections [9]