离岸人民币对美元盘中升破7.1，人民币汇率为何持续走强？

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, breaking the 7.1 mark for the first time since November 7, 2024, driven by multiple internal and external factors, indicating a potential return to a long-term appreciation trend for the RMB [1][5][7]. Group 1: Recent Exchange Rate Movements - On September 16, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1163 against the USD, marking a 65 basis point increase, the highest since November 6 of the previous year [2]. - The onshore RMB opened at 7.1100 on September 17, reflecting a 63-point increase from the previous day's close [2]. - Over the past 20 days, the onshore RMB has appreciated by 0.97%, while the offshore RMB has risen by 1.15% [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Appreciation - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a weaker USD index, strong domestic equity market performance, and favorable RMB middle rate expectations [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve's signals of potential interest rate cuts and the influx of foreign capital into China's stock market have contributed to the RMB's strength [5][6]. - The preference for Chinese equity assets among global investors has catalyzed the RMB's appreciation, with foreign capital re-entering the A-share market [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB is entering a long-term appreciation cycle, supported by improved capital flow dynamics and easing trade tensions [7][8]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts the RMB/USD exchange rate could reach 7.0 by the end of 2025, driven by favorable economic conditions and inflation expectations [7]. - The overall market sentiment has improved due to coordinated policy efforts, which are expected to bolster the RMB's stability and attractiveness [8].