Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has slightly retreated from a four-year high of 1.1875, currently hovering around 1.1855, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for August showed a strong growth of 0.6%, exceeding market expectations, marking three consecutive months of robust expansion [1] - The U.S. labor market remains weak, and rising tariffs are putting pressure on consumer spending, despite the positive retail sales data [1] - In Europe, the Eurozone harmonized consumer price index (HICP) is expected to show a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year rise to 2.1% [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The market is heavily focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision, with a consensus that a rate cut is almost certain, although there may be an overestimation of the Fed's dovish guidance [1][3] - The recent economic data from the U.S. and Europe has led to a mixed sentiment, with the U.S. retail sales growth and the unexpected rise in Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD has risen for four consecutive days, breaking through the upper boundary of its ascending channel, with the RSI indicator entering the overbought territory [6] - Short-term market behavior is expected to remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with potential for a pullback if Powell's comments temper expectations for significant easing [6] - Key support levels for the Euro/USD are identified at 1.1830, 1.1790, and 1.1755, while resistance levels are at 1.1878 and 1.1885, with a psychological target of 1.2000 if the upward trend continues [7]
KVB官网：美元回升在即，欧元兑美元能否守住四年高点？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-17 10:47