真实、残酷的AI就业冲击——从一篇极其精彩的哈佛论文聊起

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of AI on the job market, particularly focusing on how it affects entry-level positions and the employment landscape for young workers [1][24]. Group 1: Research Findings - A study from Harvard University, conducted by two economics PhD students and supervised by a prominent labor economist, investigates the effects of AI on employment [3][4]. - The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset from Revelio Labs, covering 285,000 companies and 62 million resumes, providing a near-complete view of the U.S. labor market [6][7]. - From 2015 to mid-2022, employment growth for junior and senior positions was parallel, but by mid-2022, junior positions began to stagnate and decline, while senior positions continued to grow [10][12]. Group 2: AI Adoption and Employment Trends - The study identifies a significant drop in entry-level job postings in companies that adopted AI, with a 7.7% decrease in junior positions compared to non-AI adopters after AI's rise [21][23]. - The decline in junior positions is attributed not to increased turnover but to a reduction in hiring, with AI adopters hiring 3.7 fewer junior employees per quarter, equating to a 22% drop in hiring for these roles [27][28]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Impacts - The contraction of entry-level positions is observed across various industries, with the most significant impact in wholesale and retail, where AI adopters reduced junior hiring by nearly 40% [32]. Group 4: Educational Background and Job Security - The study reveals a "U-shaped curve" regarding the impact of AI on employees from different educational backgrounds, with graduates from top-tier universities facing less negative impact, while those from mid-tier universities (Tier 2 and Tier 3) are most adversely affected [34][36]. - The findings suggest that companies prefer to retain top-tier graduates for their problem-solving abilities while finding lower-cost alternatives for graduates from less prestigious institutions [36].