今晚，全球屏息：美联储重启降息……

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first reduction since December of the previous year [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Rate Cut Expectations - A survey of 107 analysts indicates that 105 expect a 25 basis point cut, while only 2 anticipate a 50 basis point reduction [2]. - Notable financial journalist Nick Timiraos also predicts a 0.25 percentage point cut due to recent employment growth slowing [3]. Political Context and Voting Dynamics - The meeting occurs during a politically charged environment, potentially leading to unprecedented voting divisions within the FOMC [5][8]. - The political influence from the Trump administration has intensified, with recent appointments and judicial interventions adding complexity to the voting landscape [8][9]. FOMC Statement and Dot Plot Insights - Analysts expect the FOMC statement to acknowledge labor market weaknesses, with potential changes in language regarding employment risks [10]. - The updated dot plot will provide insights into officials' expectations for future rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs forecasting two cuts in 2025 [12]. Market Reactions and Historical Performance - Historical data shows that various asset classes typically perform positively around the time of rate cuts, with stocks often rising in the months following a cut [17][20]. - JPMorgan predicts a 0.5% to 1% increase in the S&P 500 index if a dovish 25 basis point cut occurs, but warns of a potential 3-5% pullback later in the month [16][17]. Tactical Trading Insights - The market tends to react with a "knee-jerk" rise in stocks immediately after the FOMC announcement, but this is often reversed before the close [23]. - In contrast, bond prices tend to maintain their gains following a dovish FOMC meeting, with upward momentum persisting for several trading days [23].