罕见信号再现！过去十年仅出现三次 全球通缩周期正迎决定性转折点

Group 1 - The global economy is showing signs of emerging from a deflationary cycle, with broad and narrow money supply growth rates improving significantly since last September [1] - Historical data indicates that similar recoveries in money supply growth have occurred only three times in the past decade: from 2015 to 2016, 2020 to 2021, and the current period [1] - Improvements in monetary indicators are closely linked to stock market performance, suggesting that the stock market plays a crucial role in economic regulation [1] Group 2 - Despite signs of economic recovery, the stock market is not expected to continue serving as a policy tool in the current phase [4] - There is a strong correlation between capital markets and consumer spending, with a healthy bull market likely to support economic transformation [4] - Traditional growth engines are under pressure, and consumer credit indicators have shown contraction for several consecutive quarters, highlighting the importance of capital market support during this transition [4] Group 3 - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with some high-profile stocks reaching elevated valuation levels while many companies have seen stock price increases of less than 30% or even declines [5] - Funds are shifting from high-valuation sectors to low-valuation sectors, indicating a potential change in market leadership [5] - The financial sector is highlighted as a potential area of interest, historically showing a pattern of rising and falling performance [5] Group 4 - Emerging consumer sectors, particularly those aligned with new consumption trends, are also worth monitoring as monetary indicators improve [6] - Not all consumer segments have equal potential; sectors like emotional consumption and digital content may offer greater growth opportunities [6] - Industries with improving performance but lagging market response, such as the airline industry, may present investment opportunities due to discrepancies between expected and actual financial performance [7] Group 5 - The current market adjustment period provides an opportunity for investors to reassess their positions and identify undervalued opportunities across various markets [7] - A patient and strategic approach to research and investment is emphasized as essential for navigating market volatility [7]