全球视角 | “对等关税”影响显现，日本单月对美出口“五连降”

Group 1 - Since April, Japan's exports to the U.S. have been on a downward trend, marking five consecutive months of decline due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [2][5] - In August, Japan's overall trade deficit was 242.5 billion yen, a decrease of 65.9% year-on-year, with exports slightly down by 0.1% to 8.43 trillion yen and imports down by 5.2% to 8.67 trillion yen [2] - Japan's exports to the U.S. in August fell by 13.8% year-on-year to 1.39 trillion yen (approximately 9.5 billion USD), with the decline rate worsening from 10% in July [2] Group 2 - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. shrank by 50.5% in August to 32.4 billion yen, primarily due to a 28.4% drop in automobile exports [3] - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Japanese automobiles from 25% to 15%, but this rate is still significantly higher than the pre-April level of around 2.5% [4] - The seven major Japanese automakers, including Toyota and Honda, anticipate a combined operating profit reduction of approximately 2.67 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025, which is over 30% of their previous year's profits [6] Group 3 - Japan's economy showed strong performance in Q2, with a GDP growth rate of 1.0% annualized, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.4% [7] - However, analysts predict that Japan's economy may face negative growth in Q3 due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [7] - The comprehensive effect of the U.S.-Japan trade agreement is estimated to lead to a nearly 25% decline in Japan's exports to the U.S., potentially threatening 0.5% of Japan's GDP [7]