Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-17 12:24Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is reaching new highs ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the ChiNext Index showing a significant increase of over 70% since April 7, outperforming global markets [1]. Market Performance - The ChiNext Index continues to hit new highs, driven by strong performances from individual stocks, particularly from "Ning Wang," which saw an intraday increase of 8% with trading volume exceeding 20 billion [3]. - The semiconductor sector is gaining attention, led by SMIC reaching new highs, as news of testing domestic lithography machines ignites investor interest [3]. - The overall market volume remains robust at 2.4 trillion, with a slight increase of 359 billion compared to the previous day, despite some fluctuations during the trading session [3]. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - A 25 basis point rate cut is highly anticipated, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is low. The market is closely watching the dot plot for insights into the Fed's internal stance [5][6]. - The recent appointment of three Fed governors nominated by Trump may influence the voting dynamics within the Fed, making a 50 basis point cut less likely [5]. - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision and Chairman Powell's press conference will be crucial, as he aims to communicate effectively to avoid excessive market volatility [5][6]. Impact on A-shares - The ChiNext Index rose by 2%, with the MACD diff value reaching 152.2, indicating a breakout from previous stagnation levels [12]. - The performance of the Shanghai Composite Index will be critical in determining the sustainability of the current upward trend in the market [12]. - The technology sector remains the focal point of market activity, with strong liquidity supporting a localized bull market as long as trading volume stays above 2 trillion [13].