美联储的焦点政策：不只是降息，还有缩表

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction plan may soon enter its final phase, with discussions on ending the tapering timeline expected in upcoming meetings due to signs of liquidity tightening in the market [1][7]. Group 1: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been shrinking, with holdings of U.S. Treasuries decreasing from approximately $5.8 trillion to $4.2 trillion, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) dropping from about $2.7 trillion to $2.1 trillion [2]. - The liquidity has shifted from reverse repos and bank reserves to the U.S. Treasury cash account, which has increased to around $680 billion and is projected to rise to about $850 billion in the coming weeks [2][5]. Group 2: Market Pressure Signals - The overnight secured financing rate (SOFR) has been above the interest on reserve balances (IORB) for most of September, exceeding it by 11 basis points recently, indicating rising pressure in the repo market [1][5]. - As reverse repo balances approach zero, additional liquidity flowing into the Treasury cash account will primarily come from bank reserves, which are expected to decline to approximately $2.8 to $2.9 trillion by year-end [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Citigroup anticipates that if repo market pressures persist, the Federal Reserve may conclude its balance sheet reduction by the end of this year, although a specific timeline has yet to be determined [1][7]. - The current market pressure is relatively mild compared to the 2018-2019 period, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is better prepared to address liquidity issues, which may lead to a smoother policy transition [7].