Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points with a 96.0% probability, while a 50 basis point cut has only a 4% chance [3] - Market focus is on whether the Fed's dot plot will predict three rate cuts for the year instead of two, which would be interpreted as dovish [3] - If the Fed's decisions exceed expectations, it could support the A-share index to challenge the 3900-point level [3] Group 2 - The market indices are showing a rebound, primarily driven by heavyweight stocks, but the overall profit-making effect is weaker compared to previous days [4] - The index has been fluctuating below the 3900-point level for 18 trading days, indicating a potential change in trend as the anniversary of last year's bull market approaches [4] - The rebound in the index has broken through the 20-day moving average, but the lack of strong momentum suggests that if the Fed's announcement does not exceed expectations, the index may test support at the 3860 level [6]
大象论股|决战降息夜！明天能上3900吗？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-17 12:59