黄力晨：美联储降息成定局 利率路径对金价影响更大

Core Viewpoint - The market's high expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are supporting the continued rise in gold prices, which recently reached a new historical high [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have been influenced by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with recent comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicating risks in the job market and the possibility of rate cuts [2]. - Recent U.S. economic data, including poor non-farm payroll figures and a four-year high in initial jobless claims, have reinforced the market's expectations for a rate cut [2]. - The U.S. dollar is under pressure, nearing a three-year low, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit a five-month low, both of which support gold prices [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices reached a high of $3703 but faced resistance and retreated to around $3690, indicating a potential short-term adjustment despite the overall upward trend [1][4]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3662, $3635, and $3600, while resistance levels are at $3674 and $3700 [4]. - Technical indicators suggest that after a continuous rise, there may be a need for adjustment, as evidenced by the MACD entering the overbought zone and the KDJ and RSI indicators forming bearish signals [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, which is expected to provide short-term support for gold prices [2][4]. - Investors are advised to focus on the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve, as the number of potential future rate cuts may have a more significant impact on gold prices than the immediate cut [2].