多重利好支撑升值趋势，离岸人民币盘中升破7.1关口

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a weakening of the US dollar, with the dollar index dropping below 97, marking a new low since July 7 [1][3] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its rate cuts, with expectations of four consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, December, and January, aiming for a target range of approximately 3.375% by January [2][3] - The shift in rate cut expectations is based on recent soft inflation and employment data, providing the Fed with the policy space to move towards a neutral interest rate level [2][3] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - The Chinese yuan has been appreciating against the US dollar, with the onshore yuan reaching a high of 7.1047 and the offshore yuan breaking the 7.1 mark, reaching 7.09756 [3][4] - Analysts attribute the yuan's strength to the anticipated Fed rate cuts and a strong domestic stock market, which has led to increased foreign capital inflows [4][5] - The yuan's appreciation is expected to continue, with predictions of a moderate upward trend as the market adjusts to the Fed's monetary policy changes [5][6] Group 3: Economic Implications - The weakening dollar and strengthening yuan may enhance the flexibility of China's monetary policy, potentially benefiting small and medium enterprises by lowering financing costs [7] - The overall economic sentiment is improving, with expectations that if domestic credit and consumption recover, the yuan could experience a significant appreciation [6][7] - The combination of external and internal factors is driving the yuan's performance, with a focus on the Fed's actions and the yuan's middle rate adjustments [6][7]