阿里重返3万亿市值，马云重出江湖背后的一场逆转大戏

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock has experienced a remarkable rebound, with a nearly 100% increase in 2023, reaching a market capitalization of over 3 trillion HKD, following a significant drop in previous years [1][5][20]. Stock Performance - Alibaba's stock price has shown a "V-shaped" recovery, falling from a peak of 304.85 HKD in October 2020 to a low of 55.7 HKD in October 2022, marking a decline of nearly 82% [3][4]. - Since the beginning of 2023, the stock price has surged from around 80 HKD to 158.3 HKD, nearly doubling in value [5]. Driving Factors - Three key factors have driven Alibaba's stock surge: 1. The development of self-researched AI chips aimed at filling the gap left by Nvidia in the Chinese market, with specifications surpassing Nvidia's A800 [6][7]. 2. Strong financial performance, with a 76% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2 2025 and record growth in cloud revenue [6][7]. 3. The successful launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking," which attracted over 40 million active users on its first day, showcasing Alibaba's AI capabilities [6][7]. Leadership Changes - Jack Ma has returned to oversee Alibaba's AI and delivery businesses, marking his strongest involvement in five years [8]. - The company has undergone significant leadership changes, with new executives focusing on core business areas and strategic shifts [9][10]. Strategic Focus - Alibaba is concentrating on its core e-commerce and "AI + Cloud" sectors, while divesting from non-core businesses [13][23]. - The company has exited the physical retail sector, selling stakes in retail assets for significant amounts, including 131.38 billion HKD for a 78.7% stake in Gao Xin Retail [11][12]. Market Strategy - In the domestic market, Alibaba is employing a subsidy strategy to boost growth, launching a 500 billion RMB subsidy plan for food delivery services [14]. - The company has increased its market share in the instant retail sector from approximately 20% in 2024 to about 36% by July 2025 [14]. International Expansion - Alibaba is also focusing on international growth, with its International Digital Commerce Group reporting a 29% revenue increase to 132.3 billion RMB in FY2025 [17]. - The company is enhancing its logistics network globally, planning to expand its overseas warehouse space significantly [19]. Future Challenges - Despite the positive stock performance, Alibaba faces challenges, including the financial impact of its subsidy plans and increased capital expenditures in AI, which may pressure short-term profitability [20][22]. - Analysts believe that while the company is on a recovery path, the complexities of the market environment remain a concern [24].