距离FOMC议息会议还有：5小时

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting, with a probability of 94% for a reduction to the 400-425 basis points range [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability for a 25 basis point cut to the 400-425 range, while the probability for a 50 basis point cut to the 375-400 range is 6% [1] - There is no probability assigned for maintaining the current interest rate [1] Historical Context - The current interest rate hike cycle began in March 2022 and has lasted for 3 years and 6 months [1] - The last rate hike occurred in July 2023, bringing the rate to 5.25%-5.50% [1] - During this period, the Nasdaq Composite Index has increased by over 9,000 points, a rise of 70.04%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index have risen by 35.97% and 54.07%, respectively [1] Meeting Highlights - Key points of interest for the upcoming meeting include whether the FOMC will signal further rate cuts, with potential hints of three total cuts by 2025 [1] - The stance of dissenting members from the July meeting, specifically Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, will be observed to see if they will oppose the rate adjustments again [1] - The voting behavior of newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan will be scrutinized to determine if he aligns with the consensus or advocates for more aggressive rate cuts as suggested by President Trump [1]