Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is that "liquidity outweighs fundamentals," driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to inject upward momentum into risk assets [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The current market environment is compared to two historical periods: the mid-1990s when the Federal Reserve's preemptive rate cuts extended the economic expansion and fueled a stock market surge, and the 1970s before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, characterized by dollar depreciation and weakened trust in U.S. government debt [1] - There is a significant amount of idle capital ready to buy on dips, which is likely to prolong the current market cycle [1] Group 2: Trust in U.S. Debt - A warning is issued regarding foreign central banks' gold reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in thirty years, indicating a potential erosion of trust in U.S. government debt [1] - The current cycle may end due to a breakdown in trust, despite the ongoing liquidity-driven market rally [1] Group 3: Structural Risks - While liquidity may continue to drive market enthusiasm, structural risks should not be overlooked [1]
高盛：流动性驱动市场狂欢，结构性风险隐现关键信息：9月17日 美元贬值 黄金储备超美债
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-17 15:16