25个基点OR50个基点？美联储明晨大概率重启降息，对各类资产有何影响？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut with a 96.1% probability, while a 50 basis point cut has a 3.9% chance [1] - Analysts predict mixed opinions during the meeting, with some supporting a 50 basis point cut and others advocating for a 25 basis point cut or opposing any cuts [1] - The current financial environment in the U.S. remains relatively loose, which does not support the idea of continuous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index typically experiences significant gains in the 12 months following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [2] - The current market has fully priced in expectations for a 25 basis point cut, and a mere 25 basis point reduction may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction [2] - A 50 basis point cut may be necessary to maintain the downward trend of the dollar and support the rise of U.S. assets [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market's interest rates follow the U.S. due to the linked exchange rate system, and a rate cut by the Federal Reserve will lower funding costs in Hong Kong [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw significant gains during the last rate cut cycle, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 78.71% in 2020 [3] - The rate cut opens up further space for potential reductions in China, benefiting both the stock and real estate markets [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to create a more favorable liquidity environment for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, signaling positive market conditions [3] - Historically, U.S. Treasury bonds perform well during rate cut expectations, with long-term bonds particularly benefiting from increased relative value [3] Group 5 - Gold is expected to benefit from the rate cut as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making it more attractive [4]