美联储议息会爆雷！经济数据已全部公布，降25还是降50基点？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16-17, 2025, is generating significant market speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points due to weak employment data and persistent inflation concerns [2][3][5] - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [2][3] - The consumer price index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, with core CPI steady at 3.1%, indicating inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [3][5] Group 2 - Market expectations heavily favor a 25 basis point cut, with a 96% probability according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is only 4% [5][9] - Political pressures are influencing the Fed's decision-making, with former President Trump advocating for significant rate cuts to stimulate the economy ahead of midterm elections, which could undermine the Fed's independence [5][7] - The potential for a 50 basis point cut could signal severe economic issues, leading to market panic, while a 25 basis point cut would be seen as a standard response, allowing for gradual market adjustments [9]