A股收评：不用猜了！降息已经明牌，周四股准备好拉升了

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a probability of 95.9%, driven by both economic conditions and political pressure from President Trump [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The upcoming rate cut is viewed as a "preventive rate cut" rather than a response to recession, which historically has led to increased liquidity and market recovery in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3]. - A significant valuation gap exists between A-shares and U.S. equities, with the CSI 300 index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 14 times, about 60% of the S&P 500's valuation [3]. - Historical data shows that during Fed rate cut cycles, foreign capital tends to flow into A-shares, with a notable increase of $18.8 billion in net purchases following the Fed's first rate cut in September 2024 [3]. Group 2: Currency and Policy Effects - A rate cut typically weakens the dollar, reducing depreciation pressure on the yuan, which encourages foreign investment in A-shares [4]. - As of September 15, the yuan appreciated by 1.2% to 7.1056, lowering the exchange cost for foreign investors and enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares [6]. - The Fed's rate cut opens up more operational space for the People's Bank of China, potentially leading to a 10-15 basis point reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to further lower corporate financing costs [7]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Opportunities - The technology growth sector is expected to be the primary beneficiary of the rate cut, as it lowers financing costs for research-intensive industries [8]. - Foreign capital has shown increased interest in semiconductor and AI companies, with significant investments noted in leading firms like Zhongwei and Northern Huachuang [8]. - The financial sector stands to gain from improved market activity and liquidity, with leading brokerage firms like CITIC Securities and Dongfang Wealth seeing stock price increases of over 20% following the Fed's rate cut [9]. Group 4: Commodities and Resource Sector - The resource sector benefits from dual drivers: a weaker dollar boosting commodity prices and improved global liquidity increasing demand for resources [11]. - Gold prices have been positively impacted by the liquidity boost from the rate cut, although future economic recovery may lead to a downward trend in gold prices [12]. Group 5: Historical Context and Market Behavior - Historical trends indicate that gold has an 83% success rate in the 10 trading days following a rate cut since 1990, but caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking [13]. - The A-share market experienced a "good news priced in" correction after the Fed's previous rate cuts, with significant foreign capital outflows noted [14]. - The effectiveness of the Fed's rate cut is contingent on coordinated domestic policies, as a lack of substantial action from the People's Bank of China could diminish foreign capital inflow [15][17].