人民币对美元汇率创十个月新高

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the 7.1 mark for the first time since November 7, 2024, indicating a potential long-term appreciation trend for the RMB [1][3]. Exchange Rate Trends - On September 17, the offshore RMB reached a high of 7.0964 against the USD, while the onshore RMB closed at 7.1163, marking a 65 basis point increase from the previous trading day, the highest since November 6 of last year [1][2]. - The RMB has experienced two rounds of appreciation since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US in April, with the first round starting on May 10 and the second round from late August to the present [1]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising domestic asset values [3]. - The strengthening of the RMB is also influenced by a decline in the US dollar index due to signals from the Federal Reserve and improved domestic stock market performance, leading to increased foreign capital inflow [3]. - A growing global preference for Chinese equity assets has catalyzed the RMB's appreciation, with foreign capital net buying A-shares for the first time in months, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [3]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB is entering a long-term appreciation cycle, with Deutsche Bank forecasting the exchange rate to reach 7.0 by the end of 2025 [4]. - The overall trend for the RMB exchange rate is expected to be characterized by "steady appreciation" and "two-way fluctuations" [3].