美联储FOMC声明及鲍威尔发布会重点一览

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with Chairman Powell indicating this is a risk management move amid high inflation and weakening employment, seeking a balance between easing and caution [1] FOMC Statement and Economic Outlook - The rate cut marks a resumption of the easing cycle that was paused since December of the previous year, with some officials suggesting a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [2] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year, with one official predicting a total reduction of 150 basis points by year-end, while another believes no cuts should occur this year [2] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the next two years has been revised down to 4.4% and 4.3%, reflecting increased downside risks in the labor market [2] Inflation Outlook - Inflation has risen and remains at a "slightly high" level, with the PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026 adjusted upward to 2.6% [3] Economic Growth Outlook - GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, with a forecast of 1.8% for the end of 2028 [3] Powell's Press Conference Highlights - The rate cut is characterized as a risk management decision, with future rate adjustments to be made based on data, emphasizing the rising downside risks in the labor market [4] - Recent inflation trends show an increase, with August's overall PCE expected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year and core PCE up by 2.9% compared to the previous year, indicating upward inflation risks [4] - Economic growth is slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with the pass-through of tariffs to consumers occurring but less than anticipated [4] - The Fed's commitment to its independence is reaffirmed, with Powell addressing the influence of individual voting members on rate decisions [4] - Market reactions included significant fluctuations in gold prices and movements in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields following the rate decision and Powell's comments [4] Latest Expectations - As of the report, interest rate futures are pricing in a potential reduction of 45 basis points this year and approximately 72 basis points next year, with a 13.3% probability of the Fed remaining unchanged in October [5]