今年首次行动！美联储如期降息25基点，强调就业下行风险

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing the target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle [1][9] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was widely anticipated, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut reflected in futures markets prior to the announcement [1] - The Fed's updated projections indicate an increase in the expected number of rate cuts for the year from two to three, suggesting two additional 25 basis point cuts after the current one [1][12] Employment and Economic Outlook - Concerns regarding a slowdown in the job market have overshadowed inflation worries, prompting the Fed to adjust its focus on employment risks [2][3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that job growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, indicating heightened risks to employment [3] Voting Dynamics - In the recent FOMC meeting, 11 out of 12 voting members supported the 25 basis point cut, with only one member, newly appointed Stephen Miran, opposing it in favor of a 50 basis point cut [5][6] - The voting outcome did not reflect a significant division within the committee compared to previous meetings [7] Asset Reduction Strategy - The Fed reiterated its commitment to reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, maintaining a slower pace of balance sheet reduction since April [4] Economic Projections - The Fed has revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for the next three years while adjusting unemployment and inflation expectations [14][15] - The updated median projections indicate a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, with inflation expected to return to the Fed's long-term target of 2% by 2028 [15]